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Will China-India conflict turn into an American war?

“Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it”

George Santayana

Modi is doomed to repeat the mistakes committed by then-prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru on his China strategy”  Bhim Bhurtel                    

A dollar crash is virtually inevitable while the economic war between US and China has been onsince 2018.  Then the world witnessed anti-China protests in semiautonomous Hong Kong with US flag, suspecting America’s involvement planning something big.

At the beginning of 2020, international community witnessed and is continuing to experience the fear of Covid-19 followed by the blame-game and US tries to target China. While the relationship between these two giants has never been smooth, but as China movesforward towards ‘superpowerdom’, Covid threw further fuel on the flames on the already heated relationship between US-China.

American domestic politics has always influenced American war elsewhere and the next election is around the corner. America’s mightiness is eroding away on multiple fronts especially in places whereAmerica unleashed terror in the name of bringing democracy to those people using the narrative of ‘regimechange’, killing innocent people, particularly in the Muslim world. Inevitably Americans will beforced to leave the foreign lands including Afghanistan and Iraq.

So would US be looking for another war elsewhere?

India’s independent foreign policy has rapidly changed since early nineties leaning closer towards the US. Simultaneously, America has been seeing a future that brings India and Israel together. Understandably this alarms China whom India fought a bloody war in 1962,only to be defeated badly by the Communist army.   Today Israel-India strategic ties no longer a secret, ismaking China to worry.  

Geopolitics in the region are changing rapidly as China and Pakistan get closer through China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).  Obviously, CPEC creates a barrier for US strategy while Chinese influence increases in the region.

Having said that, the current standoff between India and Chinathe two most populous nations and nuclear-armed neighbours began as a result of road construction by India in the disputed region of Ladakh. Ladakh is part of Jammu and Kashmir.

On 05 August 2019 India illegally abrogated Article 370 by which the limited-autonomous status of the disputed Indian-occupied Jammu and Kashmir territory was removed.  Kashmiris fear this is aimed at a demographic transformation and plan to form exclusive Hindu settlements from India, in Muslim-majority Kashmir. This has rung security and geopolitical alarm bells in neighbouring China and Pakistan since it still remains sharp in their memory that India waged war against both China and Pakistan in the not-very-distant past.

India’s aggressive move in disputed Kashmir and working on two key roads near the China border in Ladakh has made China to prepare, particularly after the recent Trump’s India visit solidified India’s trust in US support in case of a war against China.

India and Nepal has maintained very close relationship as a result of sharing close linguistic, marital, religious and cultural ties at the people-to-people level. However  in the last five years anti-Indian sentiment has risen amongst the government and people in Nepal began as a result of territorial dispute.  Nepal issued a new political map claiming back its territory that once India had borrowed to be used against Chinawar in 1962,including Kalapani, Lipu Lekh and Limpiyadhura when India built 80 Km-long road in Himalayas.  

Indian army build-up in Aksai-Chin and Nepal border has led China to take an offensive strategy to counter any further aggression in the border.

Political analysts opined that India’s new Citizenship Act and abrogation of Article 370 annexing illegallyinternationally disputed Jammu and Kashmir is a threat to India’s neighbours.  

The fragile peace between India-China after formationof LineofActualControl could hardly survive since its been punctuated by skirmishes on the border, including in 2013 and 2017.

America’s continuous interference in far-away nationsin the name of demanding ‘regime-change’ hasdestroyed countries, like what is happening in Syria. China will not wait and watch out American incursions in the region.

Will America use the current volatile political climate in India to start a war against China?

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